Within SPROUT, scenarios were developed in preparation to the deployment of pilots, in order to imagine the urban mobility transformations underway in these cities if no new policy interventions are undertaken by 2030.
In order to build the scenarios, SPROUT used an innovative participatory methodology that is both quantitative and qualitative. It employed cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) and creative scenario workshops to generate consistent scenarios.
Below you can find the first two scenarios for the city of Tel Aviv. The first scenario is titled ‘Riding safely and slowly together’. In this Tel Aviv in 2030, there is a strong political support for sustainable mobility, and tax policy in the city encourages sustainable mobility as well. A lot of citizens therefore now use alternative (micro)mobility modes, and the city has developed infrastructure to accommodate these changes. This pleases the seniors in the city, who did not feel safe on sidewalks, as young people were cruising past them on bicycles and e-scooters. Public transport has also been enhanced and rendered accessible to all, ensuring better connectivity. The city is also heavily investing in electrification of mobility, and most streets in the city are limited to 30km/h.
Tel Aviv’s second possible 2030 future is titled ‘Transportation crisis’. In this future, there is no political support for sustainable mobility, and public transport is in crisis. It is still the main way to get around the city, but a lack of funding for it means its service level is severely reduced. This causes a problem for seniors around the city, who now have to increasingly use on-demand transport apps and taxis. There is also an important pressure on parking, which pushes residents and businesses further outside the city centre, increasing urban sprawl. This parking crisis is also heightened by an increase in delivery services, of which more and more are created every month. Micro-mobility solutions and bike have become increasingly popular, but there is no investment in separate infrastructure, regularly causing dangerous situations on the city’s streets.
The SPROUT’s experience in using scenarios has proved that they are a very useful tool in planning for alternative futures, because they do not only consider what is likely, but they consider what is plausible. We have also found them to be a very useful tool to involve stakeholders, so that they can really represent the visions of people who know their city best.
To check out the complete collection of visual representations of future mobility scenarios for the SPROUT pilot cities, see our Resources page: https://sprout-civitas.eu/resources