SPROUT is currently building on the work done in the previous phase of the project, in which the bases of a thorough understanding of the current state of urban mobility in the SPROUT cities were established, through a dedicated report, with the identification of locally-relevant drivers and stakeholders, as well as with the creationof a catalogue of attributes for the collection of relevant data.
The latest SPROUT report has the objective of documenting the creation of urban mobility scenarios for each of the pilot cities for two time horizons (2025 and 2030), which describe the possible development of the urban mobility system in the pilot cities if no new policies are introduced to harness transition. For every city, two consistent scenarios were selected that were as different from each other as possible, in order to take as many future developments into account as possible. As a final step, a third scenario was generated for each city, aimed at reflecting the most likely future development, as envisioned by every city’s stakeholders.
In order to build these scenarios, SPROUT pilot cities supported by the Vrije Universiteit Brussel used two complementary technique: a cross-impact balance analysis (a software-aided technique), and a participatory scenario narration.
It is relevant to note that the resulting scenarios are particularly city-specific, as they are tailored to each city’s specific input with regards to drivers and stakeholders, and for this reason they are unique and therefore difficult to compare.
These scenarios will be, as a next step, analysed through a sustainability impact analysis and a policy impact analysis. This will then lead to the development and validation of city-specific narrative scenarios.
In order to read the full SPROUT report about city-specific urban mobility scenarios, click here.